Immunological Models of Epidemics

Saturday, October 5, 2013: 4:25 PM
217 B (Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center)
Fabio Milner, PhD , School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
Mathematical models for analyzing the spread of a disease are usually epidemiological or immunological.

The former are mostly ODE-based models that use classes like susceptibles, recovered, infectives, latently infected, etc. to describe the evolution of an epidemic in a population. Some of them also use structure variables, such as size or age. The latter describe the evolution of the immune system/pathogen in the infected host—usually resulting in death,nrecovery or chronic infection. There is valuable insight to be gained from combining these two types of models, as that may lead to a better understanding of the severity of an epidemic. In this presentation we describe a new type of model that combines the two by using variables of immunological nature as structure variables for epidemiological models.

We then describe a practical application of the model to HIV infection, based on combinations of skills from biostatisticians, medical immunologists, mathematicians and others.