Determination of Tucson, Arizona as an Ecological Trap for Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter Cooperii) by the Prevalence of Trichomonas gallinae in Columbid Populations

The term "ecological trap" has been used to describe a habitat in which its attractiveness has been disassociated with its level of suitability. To date, fewer than ten clearly defined examples of them have been found; they are either rare in nature, hard to detect, or a combination of both. It has been hypothesized that the city of Tucson, Arizona is an ecological trap for Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii) due to the abundance of prey species, namely columbids, which make up over 80% of the hawk's diet. Overall, more than 50% of these columbid populations are carriers of the protozoan Trichomonas gallinae, which directly contributes to a nestling mortality rate of more than 80% in the hawks.

Using an epidemiological framework, we create 2 SIR-type models: one stochastic and one deterministic, utilizing parameter estimates from more than 10 years of data from the dove (columbid) and hawk populations in the city. Our research investigates, through mathematical modeling and bifurcation theory, the infection prevalence rate (σ) in the columbid population that would be necessary for Tucson to be considered an ecological trap for Cooper's Hawks.