A Stochastic Model of the Human Papillomavirus Infection

Approximately 630 million people are infected with HPV worldwide with six million new cases every year. With over 100 different strains identified, HPV is the most common sexually transmitted diseases contributing to multiple health disparities including cervical cancer. In our study we develop a model that describes the transmission of HPV infection in both men and women.  We specifically chose the age groups of 12-19, 20-29, 30-65,65+ for women. These age groups can help us justify early immunizations to prevent HPV infection.  Our studies show that the age group of 12-19 is the lowest infected group while the number of woman progressing to LSIL (Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion) peaks at the age group of 30-65. These results support the need for early immunizations and screening programs. Our results are based on estimates from the parameters found in prior studies. We hope to use this model to help inform public officials on the transmission of HPV and the effectiveness of vaccination.