Statistical Analysis of Relations Between Monthly Teleconnection Indices

Weather conditions in one region can often be linked to the weather conditions of another region thousands of miles away as the result of a long-distance relationship known as a teleconnection. Teleconnections play a large role in our ocean-atmosphere system, including normal weather patterns. There are recurring deviations, or anomalies, in regional weather patterns that are commonly referred to as oscillations. This project compares three common Northern Hemisphere spatial oscillations: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These phenomena are monitored using climate indices. A climate index is an calculated number that represents the state of an oscillation over a specific region for an extended period of time. By using existing computer software, relationships between oscillations can be quantified and compared through statistical analysis. A correlation, one technique of statistical analysis, can be used to determine if there is a relationship between independent variables. For example, early results show a contemporaneous correlation of 0.52 between the PDO and the Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. Using four separate oscillation indices: the NAO Index, the PDO Index, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Niño 3.4, this project statistically analyzes the possible contemporaneous and lagged correlations between these three separately occurring oscillations on varying time scales. Because teleconnections affect local weather, knowledge of these relationships could help improve our understanding of climate and weather variability.